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Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts Using Reforecast Datasets

Award Information

Agency:
Department of Defense
Branch:
Defense Threat Reduction Agency
Award ID:
79006
Program Year/Program:
2007 / SBIR
Agency Tracking Number:
RDI060003360
Solicitation Year:
N/A
Solicitation Topic Code:
N/A
Solicitation Number:
N/A
Small Business Information
ATMOSPHERIC TECHNOLOGY SERVICES CO. LLC
P O Box 3029 Norman, OK 73070 3029
View profile »
Woman-Owned: Yes
Minority-Owned: Yes
HUBZone-Owned: Yes
 
Phase 2
Fiscal Year: 2007
Title: Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts Using Reforecast Datasets
Agency / Branch: DOD / DTRA
Contract: HDTRA1-07-C-0122
Award Amount: $749,905.00
 

Abstract:

Fine-scale, well-calibrated probabilistic weather forecasts are increasingly in demand for such weather-critical applications as battlespace management, and accurate prediction of high-value airborne operations. Built upon the Phase I effort we have just completed, the principal objective of this proposed study (Phase II) is to develop a reliable, efficient, and easily deployable reforecast-calibration system prototype based on fine-scale ensemble reforecast datasets and use it to produce well-calibrated, fine-scale probabilistic weather forecast products. This study consists of three major components. The first component is to produce a basic 20-year fine-scale ensemble reforecast dataset over the CONUS domain using the WRF-ARW modeling system. The second component is to further develop and examine various MOS-based statistical models that apply to more variables and multiple classes and to refine the Phase I KNN calibration techniques, using the large reforecast sample base, and to compare the two techniques. The third component is to conduct sensitivity experiments to study data-sparse impact and the trade-offs between ensemble size and reforecast length, in order to assess the feasibility and effectiveness of the deployable reforecast-calibration system.

Principal Investigator:

Fanyou Kong
Sr. Research Scientist
4053250056
fanyou.kong@atscwx.com

Business Contact:

Vicki E. Rose
Managing Business Directo
4053250056
vicki.rose@atscwx.com
Small Business Information at Submission:

ATMOSPHERIC TECHNOLOGY SERVICES CO. LLC
P O Box 3029 Norman, OK 73070

EIN/Tax ID: 510473759
DUNS: N/A
Number of Employees:
Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No