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Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts Using Reforecast Datasets
- Small Business Information
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Woman-Owned: YesMinority-Owned: YesHUBZone-Owned: Yes
- Phase 2
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Fiscal Year: 2007Title: Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts Using Reforecast DatasetsAgency / Branch: DOD / DTRAContract: HDTRA1-07-C-0122Award Amount: $749,905.00
Abstract:
Fine-scale, well-calibrated probabilistic weather forecasts are increasingly in demand for such weather-critical applications as battlespace management, and accurate prediction of high-value airborne operations. Built upon the Phase I effort we have just completed, the principal objective of this proposed study (Phase II) is to develop a reliable, efficient, and easily deployable reforecast-calibration system prototype based on fine-scale ensemble reforecast datasets and use it to produce well-calibrated, fine-scale probabilistic weather forecast products. This study consists of three major components. The first component is to produce a basic 20-year fine-scale ensemble reforecast dataset over the CONUS domain using the WRF-ARW modeling system. The second component is to further develop and examine various MOS-based statistical models that apply to more variables and multiple classes and to refine the Phase I KNN calibration techniques, using the large reforecast sample base, and to compare the two techniques. The third component is to conduct sensitivity experiments to study data-sparse impact and the trade-offs between ensemble size and reforecast length, in order to assess the feasibility and effectiveness of the deployable reforecast-calibration system.Small Business Information at Submission:ATMOSPHERIC TECHNOLOGY SERVICES CO. LLC
P O Box 3029 Norman, OK 73070EIN/Tax ID: 510473759DUNS: N/ANumber of Employees:Woman-Owned: NoMinority-Owned: NoHUBZone-Owned: No
Award Information
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Agency: Department of Defense |
Branch: Defense Threat Reduction Agency |
Award ID: 79006 |
Program Year/Program: 2007 / SBIR |
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Agency Tracking Number: RDI060003360 |
Solicitation Year: N/A |
Solicitation Topic Code: N/A |
Solicitation Number: N/A |