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STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF OVERT AND COVERT DATA TO ASSESS LIKELIHOOD OF CBW MANUFACTURE AT A GIVEN...

Award Information
Agency: Department of Defense
Branch: Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
Contract: N/A
Agency Tracking Number: 15163
Amount: $49,999.00
Phase: Phase I
Program: SBIR
Solicitation Topic Code: N/A
Solicitation Number: N/A
Timeline
Solicitation Year: N/A
Award Year: 1991
Award Start Date (Proposal Award Date): N/A
Award End Date (Contract End Date): N/A
Small Business Information
8248 Sugarman Drive
La Jolla, CA 92037
United States
DUNS: N/A
HUBZone Owned: No
Woman Owned: No
Socially and Economically Disadvantaged: No
Principal Investigator
 Richard Altes
 Principal Investigator
 (619) 453-4406
Business Contact
Phone: () -
Research Institution
N/A
Abstract

MANY OBSERVABLE FEATURES CAN BE USED TO ASSESS THE LIKELIHOOD THAT A GIVEN MANUFACTURING FACILITY IS ENGAGED IN CBW PRODUCTION. MOST OF THESE FEATURES HAVE RELATIVELY SMALL DISCRIMINATION POWER, AND A MIXTURE OF ORDERED, QUALITATIVE OBSERVATIONS (ORDINAL DATA) AND QUANTITATIVE (RATIO) DATA ARE AVAILABLE. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCH FEATURES INVOLVES COMBINING ORDINAL AND RATIO DATA SO AS TO OBTAIN A MEASURE OF WHETHER CERTAIN SITES SHOULD BE MORE CLOSELY INSPECTED FOR POSSIBLE TREATY VIOLATIONS. THE ANAYLSIS METHOD SHOULD INCORPORATE EXPERT KNOWLEDGE FROM EXPERIENCED ANALYSTS, AND THE FEATURE SET SHOULD BE EXPANDABLE TO INCLUDE NEW INSIGHTS CONCERNING ALTERNATIVE MANUFACTURING PROCESSES AND THEIR OBSERVABLE CHARACTERISTICS. A PC-BASEDPATTERN RECOGNITION SYSTEM IS TO BE CONSTRUCTED AND TESTED WITH SIMULATED OR ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS TO SOLVE THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS PROBLEM. THE SYSTEM IS TO INCORPORATE HUMAN EXPERT KNOWLEDGE VIA FEATURE DEFINITION AND FEATURE PRIOR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS THAT CAN BE UPDATEDWITH NEW TRAINING DATA. ANTICIPATED BENEFITS/POTENTIAL COMMERCIAL APPLICATIONS - THE PATTERN RECOGNITION SYSTEM CAN BE USED FOR INDUSTRIAL MONITORING FOR ENVIRONMENTAL TREATY VERIFICATION AND NARCOTICS INVESTIGATION. IT ALSO APPLIES TO SAFETY EVALUATIONS OF LARGE SYSTEMS LIKECOMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT AND TO MARKET ANALYSIS ON THE BASIS OF OBSERVED FEATURE VALUES.

* Information listed above is at the time of submission. *

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