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TOWARDS A METHODOLOGY OF PLURAL ANALYSIS: MULTIPLE APPROACHES TO MODELING…

Award Information

Agency:
National Science Foundation
Branch:
N/A
Award ID:
703
Program Year/Program:
1985 / SBIR
Agency Tracking Number:
703
Solicitation Year:
N/A
Solicitation Topic Code:
N/A
Solicitation Number:
N/A
Small Business Information
Decision Science Associates
P.O. Box 969 Vienna, VA 22183 0096
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Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: Yes
HUBZone-Owned: No
 
Phase 2
Fiscal Year: 1985
Title: TOWARDS A METHODOLOGY OF PLURAL ANALYSIS: MULTIPLE APPROACHES TO MODELING JUDGEMENT
Agency: NSF
Contract: N/A
Award Amount: $200,008.00
 

Abstract:

THIS RESEARCH ADDRESSES A MAJOR DEFECT PERMEATING THE THEORY AND PRACTICE OF DECISION SCIENCE. THE MODELING OF UNCERTAINITY, CHOICE AND VALUE FOR PRESCRIPTIVE PURPOSES IS TYPICALLY SINGULAR, I.E., A SINGLE APPROACH IS USED. INDEED, DECISION THEORY HAS BEEN LARGELY SILENT ON WHAT TO DO WHEN MULTIPLE APPROACHES HAVE BEEN PURSUED AND YIELD INCONSISTENT FINDINGS. THE OPPORTUNITY TO FORMALIZE AND EXTEND THE PLURALISM OF EVERYDAY THINKING IS THEREBY LOST. THIS RESEARCH AIMS AT EXTENDING THE SCOPE OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCE TO INCLUDE PLURAL ANALYSIS; IN PARTICULAR, TO DEVELOP THEORY AND TECHNIQUE FOR MANAGING AND OPTIMIZING THE PROCESS OF PLURAL ANALYSIS. THE RESEARCH APPROACH WILLBE MULTI-DISCIPLINARY; A PSYCHOLOGIST (VON WINTERFELDT) WILLEXPLORE EMPIRICALLY HOW "CREATIVE STRESS" BETWEEN MODELING AND INTUITION CAN BE EXPLOITED; A MATHEMATICIAN (LINDLEY) WILL DEVELOP FORMAL MODELS FOR CODIFYING AND OPTIMIZING THE PLURAL ANALYSIS PROCESS; AN APPLIED DECISION SCIENTIST (BROWN) WILL ADAPT AND TEST THOSE INSIGHTS AND PARADIGMS FOR PRACTICAL USE IN ILLUSTRATIVE INSTANCES. PHASE I IS EXPECTED TO DEMONSTRATE THE FEASIBILITY OF A METHODOLOGY TO BE IMPLEMENTED, REFINED, AND EXTENDED IN PHASE II. IF SUCCESSFUL, RESEARCH WILL: FOSTER THE APPROPRIATE USE OF PLURAL, AS OPPOSED TO SINGULAR, ANALYSIS; ENHANCE THE PRACTICE OF MANAGEMENT AND DECISION SCIENCE, OPENING UP A MAJOR CLASS OF ANALYTIC STRATEGIES; GUIDE THE APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES BETWEEN ELEMENTS IN THAT STRATEGY; AND DEVELOP THE THEORETICAL UNDERPINNINGS OF DECISION SCIENCE.

Principal Investigator:

Rex V. Brown
Principal Investigator

Business Contact:

Small Business Information at Submission:

Decision Science Consortium
1895 Reston White Dr Suite 421 Reston, VA 22091

EIN/Tax ID:
DUNS: N/A
Number of Employees: N/A
Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No