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COMPARISON BASED METHOD FOR STRUCTURING EXPERT JUDGMENT IN S/V ANALYSIS

Award Information

Agency:
Department of Defense
Branch:
Air Force
Award ID:
2228
Program Year/Program:
1986 / SBIR
Agency Tracking Number:
2228
Solicitation Year:
N/A
Solicitation Topic Code:
N/A
Solicitation Number:
N/A
Small Business Information
KLEIN ASSOC., INC.
1750 Commerce Center Blvd. North Fairborn, OH 45324
View profile »
Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No
 
Phase 2
Fiscal Year: 1986
Title: COMPARISON BASED METHOD FOR STRUCTURING EXPERT JUDGMENT IN S/V ANALYSIS
Agency / Branch: DOD / USAF
Contract: N/A
Award Amount: $438,000.00
 

Abstract:

THE OBJECTIVE OF THIS PROJECT IS TO DEVELOP A METHOD FOR THE PREDICTION OF SURVIVABILITY/VULNERABILITY (S/V) TO NUCLEAR BLAST AND SHOCK OF PROTECTIVE STRUCTURAL FACILITIES. THE PARTICULAR PROBLEM IS THE CHARACTERIZATION OF EXPERT JUDGMENT AND TECHNICAL INTUITION AS ELEMENTS IN THE ASSESSMENT PROCESS. THE APPROACH WILL BE TO APPLY COMPARISON-BASED PREDICTION (CBP) METHODS, WHICH HAVE BEEN DEMONSTRATED TO STRUCTURE EXPERT JUDGMENT SO AS TO GENERATE PREDICTIONS UNDER CONDITIONS OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR DEFENSE SYSTEM RELIABILITY AND EFFECTIVENESS, TO S/V ASSESSMENT. THE RESEARCH WILL CONSIST OF A FEASIBILITY STUDY AND TRIAL APPLICATION OF THE METHOD TO A PROBLEM SELECTED WITH AFWL, PREFERABLY ONE THAT IS ALSO THE SUBJECT OF EXPERIMENT. THE CBP METHODOLOGY PROVIDES A STRUCTURE FOR THE EXPERT JUDGMENT BY USING ANALOGOUS CASES AS A BASIS FOR THE ESTIMATION. EXPERTS WILL PRODUCE ASSESSMENTS BOTH BY THEIR USUAL METHODS AND BY CBP PROCEDURES, AND THE TWO WILL BE COMPARED; CBP RESULTS WILL ALSO BE COMPARED WITH THE RESULTS OF ANY RESEARCH FINDINGS, IF SUCH A PROBLEM WAS CHOSEN. THE STRATEGY WILL PROVIDE AN EXPLICIT AUDIT TRAIL OF HOW THE PREDICTIONS ARE DERIVED. THE PREDICTION DATA WILL BE EXAMINED TO DETERMINE THE VALUE OF CBP AS A METHOD TO AID IN S/V ASSESSMENT.

Principal Investigator:

Gary A Klein
5137672691

Business Contact:

Small Business Information at Submission:

Klein Associates
740 Wright St Yellow Springs, OH 45387

EIN/Tax ID:
DUNS: N/A
Number of Employees:
Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No