Methodology for the Prediction of Corrosion Costs

Although the full impact of corrosion cannot be quantified due to the limited amount of reliable data, current cost estimates, readiness and safety data indicate that corrosion substantially effects military equipment and infrastructure. Valid estimates of the magnitude of corrosion costs and the relative distribution of those costs among various aircraft types and system and subsystems are needed to determine the most efficient, effective way to allocate resources for corrosion control programs. The conceptual cost models will be developed with an open architecture of adaptability in parameters. The Phase I effort demonstrated that a time series analysis methodology successfully forecast field level corrosion maintenance man-hours. The total cost to the Navy for maintaining its aircraft fleet for FY 2004 was calculated to be approximately $454 million. In Phase II the direct cost of corrosion equation developed in Phase I will be refined and finalized. A model will be developed of corrosion expenditures at depot facilities and the depot results will be incorporated into the cost modeling and analysis system. Also, in Phase II software will be developed, tested and delivered that will allow users to determine corrosion costs for specific platforms, systems and subsystems.