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Client-Centered Calibration of the NOAA Climate Forecast System

Award Information

Agency:
Department of Commerce
Branch:
N/A
Award ID:
Program Year/Program:
2012 / SBIR
Agency Tracking Number:
11-87
Solicitation Year:
N/A
Solicitation Topic Code:
8.2.1C
Solicitation Number:
N/A
Small Business Information
Prescient Weather Ltd
200 Innovation Blvd State College, PA 16803-6602
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Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No
 
Phase 2
Fiscal Year: 2012
Title: Client-Centered Calibration of the NOAA Climate Forecast System
Agency: DOC
Contract: WC-133R-11-CN-0147
Award Amount: $336,382.00
 

Abstract:

Prescient Weather process five integrated Phase II tasks to increase the value of the NOAA Climate Forecast System and to assist the private sector in managing weather and climate risk and opportunity: The Phase II tasks are: (1) Develop an optimal WCS seasonal multi-model ensemble by calibrating and combining the NWS CFSv2, the ECMWF SFSv4, and the new National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) to create more skillful operational seasonal forecasts; (2) Develop an optimal WCS weekly forecast ensemble from the same models and then create an operational multi-model probability forecast; (3) Develop probability forecasts for impact variables critical in agriculture, energy, and renewable energy on the weekly, monthly, and seasonal scale; (4) Develop effective methods for combining probability forecasts, business models, and forecast performance statistics to enable users to act on the forecast with confidence in the consequences; (5) Complete and implement the Internet-based Seasonal and Subseasonal Prediction, Information, and Decision Support System (SSPIDSS) as the interactive workspace to support decision-making. The SSPIDSS implementation will focus on the client decision context, presenting a tier of probabilistic forecasts of meteorological and industry variables on the scale of seasons for long-range strategy, months and weeks for tactical adjustments, and days for immediate action.

Principal Investigator:

John A. Dutton
(814) 466-2231
john.dutton@prescientweather.com
Small Business Information at Submission:

Prescient Weather Ltd
200 Innovation Blvd State College, PA 16803-6602

EIN/Tax ID: 270595062
DUNS: N/A
Number of Employees: N/A
Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No