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M&S Uncertainty Quantification Using an Ant Swarm Model

Award Information

Agency:
Department of Defense
Branch:
Missile Defense Agency
Award ID:
Program Year/Program:
2013 / STTR
Agency Tracking Number:
B12B-007-0025
Solicitation Year:
2012
Solicitation Topic Code:
MDA12-T007
Solicitation Number:
2012.B
Small Business Information
Prime Solutions Group, Incorporated
1300 S. Litchfield Road Box 1, Suite A1020 Goodyear, AZ -
View profile »
Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No
 
Phase 1
Fiscal Year: 2013
Title: M&S Uncertainty Quantification Using an Ant Swarm Model
Agency / Branch: DOD / MDA
Contract: HQ0147-13-C-7410
Award Amount: $98,508.00
 

Abstract:

Appropriate models for missile defense systems (MDS) need to include both epistemic and aleatoric variables. This prevents the calculation of conventional confidence intervals and significance levels for the models, since these require that a statistical probability distribution be assumed wherever one is not actually known. Our proposed uncertainty quantification system will provide BMD with an overall measure of uncertainty that incorporates both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty using an ant swarm model borrowed from nature. In addition, it provides a graphical presentation of overall uncertainty. The uncertainty quantification system will also provide indicators of combinations of variables which cause the M & S system under study to produce exceptionally high, exceptionally low, or exceptionally rapidly changing output.

Principal Investigator:

Joseph Marvin
Program Manager
(623) 853-0829
joemarvin@psg-inc.net

Business Contact:

Sharon Marvin
Director of Contracts
(623) 853-0829
sharonmarvin@psg-inc.net
Small Business Information at Submission:

Prime Solutions Group, Incorporated
1300 S. Litchfield Road Box 1, Suite A1020 Goodyear, AZ -

EIN/Tax ID: 208269430
DUNS: N/A
Number of Employees:
Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No
Research Institution Information:
Frontline Healthcare Safety Foundat
Three Dunwoody Park, Ste 103
Atlanta, GA 30338-
Contact: J. R. Cohen
Contact Phone: (678) 781-5241