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M&S Uncertainty Quantification

Award Information

Department of Defense
Missile Defense Agency
Award ID:
Program Year/Program:
2013 / STTR
Agency Tracking Number:
Solicitation Year:
Solicitation Topic Code:
Solicitation Number:
Small Business Information
M4 Engineering, Inc.
4020 Long Beach Blvd 2nd Floor Long Beach, CA -
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Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No
Phase 1
Fiscal Year: 2013
Title: M&S Uncertainty Quantification
Agency / Branch: DOD / MDA
Contract: HQ0147-13-C-7406
Award Amount: $99,962.00


M4 Engineering, Inc. and Missouri S & T propose to investigate and refine uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for Ballistic Missile Defense Systems (BMDS) Modeling and Simulation (M & S) with the emphasis on demonstrating the feasibility of non-intrusive stochastic expansions based on polynomial chaos, which will address the accuracy and computational efficiency issues associated with UQ in BMDS simulations. The functional representation and computational efficiency of the stochastic expansion methods will enable the use of uncertainty quantification for both real-time and as-fast-as-possible BMDS M & S. Furthermore, methods based on polynomial chaos will be non-intrusive in the sense that no modification to the existing deterministic physical modeling codes will be required. The UQ approach will include the modeling and propagation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in BMDS M & S with the utilization of Second-Order Probability Theory. The computational efficiency and accuracy of stochastic expansions will be tested on model problems relevant to BMDS M & S and will be compared to other UQ methodologies based on surrogate modeling. The results of these studies will determine the UQ method(s) suitable for BMDS M & S, which will be integrated to general UQ framework software to be developed in a possible Phase II effort.

Principal Investigator:

Tyler Winter
Senior Engineer
(562) 981-7797

Business Contact:

Kevin Roughen
Vice President of Engineering
(562) 981-7797
Small Business Information at Submission:

M4 Engineering, Inc.
4020 Long Beach Blvd Long Beach, CA -

EIN/Tax ID: 020539482
Number of Employees:
Woman-Owned: Yes
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No
Research Institution Information:
Missouri S&T
1870 Miner Circle
290B Toomey Hall
Rolla, MO 65409-0500
Contact: Serhat Hosder
Contact Phone: (573) 341-7239