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Delivering a Solar Flare Forecast Model that Improves Flare Forecast (Timing…

Award Information

Department of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Award ID:
Program Year/Program:
2013 / SBIR
Agency Tracking Number:
Solicitation Year:
Solicitation Topic Code:
Solicitation Number:
Small Business Information
Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No
Phase 1
Fiscal Year: 2013
Title: Delivering a Solar Flare Forecast Model that Improves Flare Forecast (Timing and Magnitude) Accuracy by 25%
Agency / Branch: DOC / NOAA
Contract: WC-133R-13-CN-0079
Award Amount: $94,994.00


Many activities and technological systems prevalent in today’s society – air traffic control and air travel, the power grids, communications, deep-water drilling operations, human spaceflight – are vulnerable to the effects of sudden flares from our Sun. Because the propagation speed for flare emission is the speed of light, it is necessary to forecast these events in order to mitigate their effects. The objectives of this project are 1) to validate the performance of an automated flare forecasting technique that parameterizes observations of solar magnetic fields and subsurface flows determined from helioseismology, then uses Discriminant Analysis to make a prediction, and 2) to assess the feasibility of this technique as an operational model. The quantitative use of magnetic field observations, subsurface flows and Discriminant Analysis are all innovations not presently used by the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center.

Principal Investigator:

Kd Leka
Senior Research Scientist
(303) 415-9701
Small Business Information at Submission:

NorthWest Research Associates, Inc. (NWRA)
CoRA Office 3380 Mitchell Lane Boulder, CO 80301-2245

EIN/Tax ID: 911291143
Number of Employees:
Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: Yes