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Forecasting of Solar Eruptions using Statistical Mechanics, Ensemble, and…

Award Information

Agency:
Department of Defense
Branch:
N/A
Award ID:
Program Year/Program:
2014 / SBIR
Agency Tracking Number:
F141-108-0388
Solicitation Year:
2014
Solicitation Topic Code:
AF141-108
Solicitation Number:
2014.1
Small Business Information
Heron Systems Incorporated
20945 Great Mills Road Suite 201 Lexington Park, MD -
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Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No
 
Phase 1
Fiscal Year: 2014
Title: Forecasting of Solar Eruptions using Statistical Mechanics, Ensemble, and Bayesian Forecasting Methods
Agency: DOD
Contract: FA9453-14-M-0148
Award Amount: $149,868.00
 

Abstract:

Heron Systems proposes Solar Prediction via Deep Learning (SPINDLE), a human out-of-the-loop system to improve the state of solar flare forecasting using novel machine learning techniques. Currently, solar flare forecasting is either dependent on an expert, with their own subjective biases and intuitions, or automated methods using shallow representations extracted from magnetogram images, unable to learn deeper relationships in the data. SPINDLE is an automated deep learning pipeline designed to perform state-of-the-art analysis on solar observatory data for the purpose of solar flare prediction. Magnetogram and other data are collected from observatories, pre-processed, and then fed into the deep learning prediction pipeline for classification of X, M, and C solar flares in 6, 12, and 24 hour time windows. Deep learning enables the system to automatically learn sub-structures within image data over time-series, with the potential to not only dramatically improve forecasting itself, but also advance our understanding of the underlying mechanisms in solar flares. To demonstrate feasibility, we will benchmark the system against NOAA forecasts, as well as reported results in the solar flare machine learning literature.

Principal Investigator:

Greg Sanders
Sr. Computer Scientist
(571) 257-8403
greg.sanders@heronsystems.com

Business Contact:

Brett Darcey
Vice President, R&D
(571) 257-8403
brett.darcey@heronsystems.com
Small Business Information at Submission:

Heron Systems Incorporated
20945 Great Mills Road Suite 201 Lexington Park, MD -

EIN/Tax ID: 521849417
DUNS: N/A
Number of Employees:
Woman-Owned: Yes
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No