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A Stochastic Neural Network Model for Missile Reliability Prognostics

Award Information

Department of Defense
Award ID:
Program Year/Program:
2002 / SBIR
Agency Tracking Number:
Solicitation Year:
Solicitation Topic Code:
Solicitation Number:
Small Business Information
ACTA Incorporated
2790 Skypark Drive, Suite 310 Torrance, CA -
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Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No
Phase 1
Fiscal Year: 2002
Title: A Stochastic Neural Network Model for Missile Reliability Prognostics
Agency / Branch: DOD / ARMY
Contract: DAAH01-02-C-R115
Award Amount: $99,991.00


"The proposed project will demonstrate the feasibility of developing a Stochastic Neural Network for Missile Reliability Prognostics. A neural network model will be developed to predict missile reliability based on the environmental history of particularmissiles. Prediction training will be employed to predict missile reliability at future times, based only on training data available at the current time. Principal components metrics will be used to quantify generic modeling uncertainty based on pastexperience, for purposes of evaluating the predictive accuracy of future reliability estimates. The innovation proposed here will combine the benefits of prediction training and generic uncertainty modeling to quantify the accuracy of reliabilitypredictions based on a statistical comparison of earlier predictions with subsequent observations. Both will be correlated with measurements of the ambient environment recorded by a data logger. Statistical analyses of the environmental data will beperformed to coincide with the update of reliability information, reducing the environmental data to time dependent statistical parameters. In addition to providing the Army with a tool for missile reliability prognostics, an immediate spin-off might verywell be the application to Sandia's maintenance of the Nation's nuclear weapons stockpile, where radiation is an important environmental factor. Other potential applications involve various types o

Principal Investigator:

Timothy K. Hasselman
Director, Eng. Mechanics

Business Contact:

James Hudson
Vice President
Small Business Information at Submission:

Acta, Inc.
2790 Skypark Drive, Suite 310 Torrance, CA 90505

EIN/Tax ID: 953745782
Number of Employees:
Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No