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Maximizing the utility of high-resolution ensemble meteorological forecasts for…

Award Information

Agency:
Department of Defense
Branch:
Navy
Award ID:
77927
Program Year/Program:
2006 / STTR
Agency Tracking Number:
N064-037-0048
Solicitation Year:
N/A
Solicitation Topic Code:
N/A
Solicitation Number:
N/A
Small Business Information
ATMOSPHERIC & ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, INC.
131 Hartwell Avenue Lexington, MA 02421 3126
View profile »
Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No
 
Phase 1
Fiscal Year: 2006
Title: Maximizing the utility of high-resolution ensemble meteorological forecasts for planning and responding to hazardous releases
Agency / Branch: DOD / NAVY
Contract: N00014-06-M-0248
Award Amount: $70,000.00
 

Abstract:

The two primary motivations for this work are: First, to provide forecasts of dispersion of a hazardous release and associated uncertainty (or "error bars") based on the available ensemble MET data. Second, to provide an efficient and user-friendly tool for decision makers supporting both deterministic and ensemble forecast MET data as well as resulting dispersion model forecasts. To achieve added value the ensemble forecasts will be downscaled to high resolution, bias corrected, and weighted as part of this process. During Phase 1 AER will demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology by assembling a prototype system that leverages existing technology. This will allow multiple schemes for displaying probabilistic information from the ensemble and for evaluating, ranking, and weighting individual ensemble members to be studied and demonstrated. To satisfy these requirements, a toolkit based on a framework to support both data processing and visualization will be developed. By providing for a common representation scheme for both MET and ATD data sets, the toolkit will allow for intermediate data sets to be visualized and to diagnose how processing assumptions and choices propagate through the methodology. Additional tools and/or processes can be readily applied within this framework to extend its capabilities as needed.BENEFITS: The methodology developed will improve planning and forecasting hazardous releases and will be valuable to government agencies and to industry, especially to those agencies or companies that might be targets of terrorism and/or must handle hazardous substances as part of their function or business. These include elements of DOD, DHS, DOE, oil production facilities, ports and transportation hubs, chemical plants, and others.

Principal Investigator:

Steve Lowe
Principal Investigator
7817612288
slowe@aer.com

Business Contact:

Cecilia Sze
President and CEO
7817612288
csze@aer.com
Small Business Information at Submission:

ATMOSPHERIC & ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, INC.
131 Hartwell Avenue Lexington, MA 02421

EIN/Tax ID: 042608324
DUNS: N/A
Number of Employees:
Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No
Research Institution Information:
THE RESEARCH FOUNDATION OF SUNY
Office of Sponsored Programs S
Stony Brook, NY 11794
Contact: Ivar Strand
Contact Phone: (631) 632-4402
RI Type: Nonprofit college or university