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Forest pest risk analysis in dynamic landscapes

Award Information

Agency:
Department of Agriculture
Branch:
N/A
Award ID:
88598
Program Year/Program:
2008 / SBIR
Agency Tracking Number:
2009-01116
Solicitation Year:
N/A
Solicitation Topic Code:
N/A
Solicitation Number:
N/A
Small Business Information
Applied Biomathematics
100 North Country Rd. Setauket, NY -
View profile »
Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No
 
Phase 1
Fiscal Year: 2008
Title: Forest pest risk analysis in dynamic landscapes
Agency: USDA
Contract: N/A
Award Amount: $79,244.00
 

Abstract:

Forest insect pests cause significant economic and ecological damage every year. Dramatically increased pest activity in recent years suggests that changing climate conditions will inflate the uncertainty associated with pest risk assessments. Advances in forest pest risk analysis methodology are needed to allow managers to better explore the consequences and value of alternative management scenarios and to facilitate improvements in the prioritization of threats to natural resources. Although tools are currently available for mapping the risk of pest activity according to landscape features, host distributions, and climate, most equate habitat suitability with risk. A necessary but underdeveloped way to improve these risk assessments would incorporate information about population dynamics. We propose to develop the first software tool that will accept a wide range of GIS-based factors, including habitat suitability maps, and predict risk based on spatially explicit simulations of forest pest population dynamics. A key aspect of this tool will be feedback between the pest and its hosts, allowing forest structure (and therefore habitat suitability) to evolve dynamically over time. The software tool will generate maps representing the area and intensity of impact on hosts and graphs describing the uncertainty associated with model output.

Principal Investigator:

Nicholas A. Friedenberg
Research Scientist
6317514350
nick@ramas.com

Business Contact:

Nicholas A. Friedenberg
Research Scientist
6317514350
nick@ramas.com
Small Business Information at Submission:

APPLIED BIOMATHEMATICS INC
100 N COUNTRY RD East Setauket, NY 11733

EIN/Tax ID: 112596502
DUNS: N/A
Number of Employees:
Woman-Owned: No
Minority-Owned: No
HUBZone-Owned: No