Modeling Asymmetric Threats to Critical Infrastructure

To predict likely terrorist actions and terrorist targets in the U.S. we need (1) models of how terrorist organizations evolve and learn (2) identification of cultural variables likely to shape the evolution of terrorist organizations within the U.S. and(3) methods for including these cultural context variables in organizational learning models. Our team includes three essential types of expertise: (1) historical knowledge of terrorist organizations and activities and how they have evolved over time; (2)theoretical predictions from cultural anthropology on how cultural context affects organizational evolution; and (3) knowledge of available computational organizational modeling techniques and what they can accomplish. We plan to bring world experts fromeach of these three areas together onto one team, and conduct a Symposium in Washington, D.C. to assess what should be modeled, and what can be modeled. In Phase I we will assess what is needed to develop a model that predicts the evolution of terroristgroups in the U.S., evaluate current modeling organizational techniques against these requirements, identify areas where new modeling techniques will be needed, develop possible approaches, and prepare a plan for Phase II model development. The primaryuse of the model will be in predicting terrorist activities in order to protect U.S. infrastructure and develop courses of action for counter terrorism. Law enforcement agencies could adapt the model to assist in the management of riots and incidents ofterrorism. Public and private agencies can use the model to help plan disaster relief operations, which typically involve many different types of organizations. Industry can use the model to help manage multinational responses to large-scale industrialaccidents such as the Exxon Valdez oil spill.