M&S Uncertainty Quantification

M4 Engineering, Inc. and Missouri S & T propose to investigate and refine uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for Ballistic Missile Defense Systems (BMDS) Modeling and Simulation (M & S) with the emphasis on demonstrating the feasibility of non-intrusive stochastic expansions based on polynomial chaos, which will address the accuracy and computational efficiency issues associated with UQ in BMDS simulations. The functional representation and computational efficiency of the stochastic expansion methods will enable the use of uncertainty quantification for both real-time and as-fast-as-possible BMDS M & S. Furthermore, methods based on polynomial chaos will be non-intrusive in the sense that no modification to the existing deterministic physical modeling codes will be required. The UQ approach will include the modeling and propagation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in BMDS M & S with the utilization of Second-Order Probability Theory. The computational efficiency and accuracy of stochastic expansions will be tested on model problems relevant to BMDS M & S and will be compared to other UQ methodologies based on surrogate modeling. The results of these studies will determine the UQ method(s) suitable for BMDS M & S, which will be integrated to general UQ framework software to be developed in a possible Phase II effort.