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Intercept Debris Modeling for Non Hit-to-Kill Missile Engagements




The technology within this topic is restricted under the International Traffic in Arms Regulation (ITAR), which controls the export and import of defense-related material and services. Offerors must disclose any proposed use of foreign nationals, their country of origin, and what tasks each would accomplish in the statement of work in accordance with section 5.4.c.(8) of the solicitation.

OBJECTIVE: Extend fast-running intercept debris initial condition modeling to address debris from non hit-to-kill (NHTK) missile engagements.

DESCRIPTION: Modeling debris from NHTK missile engagements poses a number of challenges including sensitivities to engagement conditions, interceptor warhead characteristics, and threat characteristics. Relevant engagement conditions include the standoff distance, closing speed, engagement geometry, and number of fragment impacts. Relevant interceptor warhead characteristics include fragment mass, shape, and material; fragment number, density and pattern; fragment speeds; and blast effects. Relevant threat characteristics include geometry, materials, and payload type. Outputs should include fragment characteristics needed to support the simulation of fragment propagation, fragment signatures, and sensor scenes. Outputs should be based on time-ordered penetration and damage modeling for interceptor warhead fragments including shock-to-detonation effects for threats containing high explosives. Debris modeling for NHTK engagements should consider fragment characteristics and correlations that are less sensitive to engagement type. Innovative debris modeling for NHTK engagements should be anchored using a combination of data from light gas gun, arena, sled, and flight tests. The tool developed needs to be capable of actively supporting Hardware-in-the-Loop ground testing and range safety assessments for flight tests in digital M&S venues.

PHASE I: Identify and prioritize sensitivities for NHTK debris modeling including engagement conditions, interceptor characteristics, and threat characteristics. Develop an approach and conceptual model to modeling the primary sensitivities, penetration and damage, and correlations for NHTK debris. This approach should be generally consistent with HTK debris modeling in terms of outputs and execution time. Identify data and an approach for anchoring and validation.

PHASE II: Based upon the findings from Phase I, the contractor will complete a detailed prototype design of the software/model incorporating government performance requirements. This prototype design should be used to form the development and implementation of a mature, full-scale capability in Phase III that could run in real time.

PHASE III DUAL USE APPLICATIONS: Execute the approach to address limitations of the initial model developed in Phase II and to complete anchoring and validation. Generate complete documentation including a basis of confidence. Support integration into other models and simulations.


  • U.S. Missile Defense Agency. November 3, 2015. Ballistic Missile Defense System. Retrieved from
  • KIDD Product Sheet (Public Release 12-MDA-6650). Retrieved from
  • PEELS Product Sheet (Public Release 12- MDA-6639).

KEYWORDS: modeling, simulation, intercept debris, fragmentation


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