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Maritime Lethality Analysis Toolset



OBJECTIVE: Develop an innovative physics-based lethality toolset useful to analyze the effects of multiple weapons against maritime targets. 

DESCRIPTION: The Navy currently does not have a unified/comprehensive set of tools useful in assessing weapon lethality effects against maritime targets. Weapon effects of interest include those associated with air blast (internal or external), fragmentation, inert/reactive particles, shaped charge/explosively formed projectiles, and kinetic energy penetrators. These effects would couple with the different internal/external components and structures promoting different types of defeat mechanisms. A lethality toolset implementing multiple physics-based and user-defined modules is needed in order to properly assess weapon effects on maritime targets. The proposed solution must be thought of as an advanced, in-depth, and higher resolution/fidelity analysis tool capable of providing the Navy with engineering-level solutions in support of developmental/fielded maritime warhead lethality studies analogous to existing building/land target weaponeering analysis toolsets such as Integrated Munitions Effects Analysis (IMEA), Fast Integrated Structural Target (FIST), and AJEM (Advanced Joint Endgame Manager). The analysis toolset must allow the capability for end users to develop/implement new models/modules through a common physics-based approach, as well as allow leveraging of existing Government off-the-Shelf (GOTS), Commercial off-the-Shelf (COTS) and/or Open Source data/algorithms by integrating them onto a unified tool. The computational engine/paradigm included in the analysis toolset must take into account combined synergies stemming from the different modules enabled (e.g.. blast, frag, particles, etc.), allowing for modification of prevalent target/component loading and the ability to predict structural response/collapse useful in a single- or multiple-weapon lethality analysis. In addition, the proposed solution must allow the capability for end users to develop/implement vulnerability descriptions (similar but not limited to “fault/logic trees”) and associate these with the target geometry model. The analysis toolset must implement a Monte Carlo simulation feature ensuring that all of the parameters inside any of the physics modules could be varied using standard statistical probability distributions along with user-defined curves and including a weapon’s terminal impact conditions (speed, orientation) as input variables. The analysis toolset must allow importing of existing Tri-Service-approved geometrical models or Computer Aided Design (CAD) files such as Ballistic Research Laboratory (BRL) CAD’s “.g” or similar, and permit the importing of other developmental CAD models (e.g., file formats compatible with existing GOTS/COTS CAD software packages) by the Analyst/Engineer. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) whereby visual depiction of the maritime target and weapon implemented along with the analysis results that includes the different weapon effects is needed. Stochastic, Monte Carlo, and deterministic output of the different weapon effects data must be organized visually through graphs and output data saved through corresponding image/text files. All of the development must leverage open source computational packages as much as possible. The toolset must be cross-compatible with Microsoft Windows and Linux Operating Systems (OS) to include future implementation onto clusters and other High Performance Computers (HPC) systems such as those owned and maintained by the DoD. The analysis toolset and the physics–based or empirical models must be compatible and take advantage of parallelism available in modern desktop computer systems such as multiple cores, Central Processing Units (CPUs), and Graphical Processing Units (GPUs). In addition to the development work, a robust Installation, User’s, and Analyst’s manuals must be documented. 

PHASE I: Identify and evaluate suitability of existing algorithms for leveraging into the development of the toolset. Provide a proposed GUI design, analysis logic flow, and computational development plan. Outline the different physics packages to be included into the analysis toolset with a focus on identifying parallel, HPC and GPU suitability. In addition, an assessment of how user-defined and/or other analysis toolbox capabilities are envisioned should be included in the proposed solution. The Phase I effort will include developing prototype plans for Phase II. 

PHASE II: Develop and demonstrate a prototype analysis toolset design and computational modules. Refine and integrate through active and interactive demonstration of integrated capabilities. Conduct additional development and inclusion of the different physics-based modules and compare against available Government test/model data. Incorporate lessons learned onto the design and implement into sprint versions of the analysis toolset. Demonstrate Stochastic, Monte Carlo, and deterministic modes of computation and corresponding output data for selected scenarios using the design GUI. Demonstrate computational performance of the different modules against selected scenarios and single core/CPU, parallel, multi-core/CPU, GPU, and HPC hardware capabilities. Demonstrate and validate the import of multiple types of general-purpose and Government-developed CAD files, along with cross-OS compatibility of the analysis toolset. Deliver alpha and beta versions along with draft versions of the associated documentation to the Government during this phase. 

PHASE III: Transition analysis toolset to the U.S. Navy for use in daily lethality studies. Receive feedback from users and release updates addressing feature requests and bug fixes. Document enhanced visual and graphical capabilities useful in future analysis and incorporate enhancements into new versions of the toolset to be released at regularly scheduled intervals. Complete a Verification and Validation report for the entire product along with its associated modules/packages. Deliver updated compiled binaries and associated source code along with final User’s and Analyst’s manuals during this phase. Commercial applications could include the support of the Tri-Service community, the Department of Homeland Security, the U.S. Coast Guard, Federal Bureau of Investigation, and maritime insurance companies supporting anti-piracy and maritime terrorism studies. Commercial shipping could also utilize this analysis toolset as a validation tool for their designs. 


1: Cooper, P. "Explosive Engineering." Wiley-VCH, 1996. (link updated on 12/13/17).

2:  Carleone, Joseph. "Tactical Missile Warheads (Progress in Astronautics and Aeronautics). AIAA Tactical Missile Series, Volume 155.

3:  Rowden, Vice Adm. Thomas, Gumataotao, Rear Adm. Peter, and Fanta, Rear Adm. Peter. Distributed Lethality, Proceedings Magazine of the U.S. Naval Institute, January 2015, Vol.141/1/1, p. 343.

4:  Driels, M. "Weaponeering: Conventional Weapon System Effectiveness." Second Edition, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., 2004.

KEYWORDS: Model Development; Maritime Lethality; Weaponeering; Warhead Effects; Ships; Analysis Toolbox; 


Thomas Hatch-Aguilar 

(760) 939-3942 

Barry Ells 

(760) 939-5614 

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