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Network Modeling for Risk Assessment


Networks, and systems of networks are ubiquitous in modern technology used throughout society today. Identification of risk in these networks often requires a model to be developed for the network or system of networks. These models range from the simple to the mathematically complicated models used for large networks. Some risks, such as cascading failures in a network, are difficult to identify. The goal for this effort is to develop the tools necessary to identify these risks, with a potential to identify mitigation strategies with an initial focus on emergency communications networks.

The tool should be capable of including information about the network, such as number and type of nodes, appropriate labels for nodes, and known risks or defects for the network. The tools will also be capable of performing counterfactual or "what-if" analysis, to identify risks in the network, such as the potential for cascading failures. The tool shall be able to incorporate information about the network or system from the PARIDINE project. PARIDINE is intended to provide disruptive event information for large networks or the Internet. This includes: 1) a definition of a disruptive event; 2) identification of data to identify disruptive events; 3) identification and operational reporting via an API for disruptive events and 4) attribution or root cause analysis of the disruptive events, with a measure of attribution accuracy. At least three state space models will be produced under the phase I effort.

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