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Learning From the Coronavirus: An Economic Assessment on the Effects of Pandemics on the Supply and Demand for Strategic & Critical Materials in the Defense Industrial Base.

Description:

TECHNOLOGY AREA(S): Bio Medical

OBJECTIVE: The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) seeks to provide responsive, best value supplies consistently to our customers.DLA continually investigates diverse technologies for manufacturing which would lead to the highest level of innovation in the discrete-parts support of fielded weapon systems (many of which were designed in the 1960’s, 1970’s and 1980’s) with a future impact on both commercial technology and government applications.As such, advanced technology demonstrations for affordability and advanced industrial practices to demonstrate the combination of improved discrete-parts manufacturing and improved business methods are of interest.All these areas of manufacturing technologies provide potential avenues toward achieving breakthrough advances.Proposed efforts funded under this topic may encompass any specific discrete-parts or materials manufacturing or processing technology at any level resulting in a unit cost reduction.Research and Development efforts selected under this topic shall demonstrate and involve a degree of risk where the technical feasibility of the proposed work has not been fully established.Further, proposed efforts must be judged to be at a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6 or less, but greater than TRL 3 to receive funding consideration.TRL 3.(Analytical and Experimental Critical Function and/or Characteristic Proof of Concept) TRL 6.(System/Subsystem Model or Prototype Demonstration in a Relevant Environment)

DESCRIPTION: The Department of Defense (DoD) is interested in funding a retrospective economic assessment on the effects of pandemics with special emphasis on the coronavirus outbreak on raw material markets and active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) for the Defense Industrial base Department of Defense respectively.The epidemic’s uncertainty is expected to abruptly disrupt supply and demand across the defense industrial base.U.S. business activity in February fell to its lowest level in more than six years due to the epidemic.Further, Economists have struggled to project the full ramifications of this epidemic due to the uncertainty of consumer and firm behavior.For Phase I, the Department is seeking a US based company to design an economic study that will provide a full literature review on pandemics and their corresponding economic effects in the Defense Industrial Base where appropriate, characterize challenges and gaps of existing assessments, design a methodological approach to the aforementioned objective, make a set of recommendations within the current legal framework to mitigate these effects, and report findings.

PHASE I: Phase I – 6 Months $100KDetermine, insofar as possible, the economic ramifications of pandemics on the Defense Industrial base and the Department of Defense, Undertake a literature review, summarize relevant information, identify a methodology and area of potential contribution, identify data sources and quantitative approach.

PHASE II: Phase II – 24 Months $1.6MDevelop and identify data sources for the applicable quantitative approach identified in Phase I.Compare conclusions to identified literature in phase I.Provide assessment on the effectiveness of economic policy initiatives on maintaining the DIB and DoD and make a set of recommendations to the Department on mitigation strategies within current legal framework as codified in the code of federal regulations (CFR).Present research to peers and other economic associations.

PHASE III: Develop a repeatable quantitative approach for the Department of Defense to identify the effects that pandemics have on the Defense Industrial base and the Department of Defense.Demonstrate near-term application to one or more Department of Defense systems, subsystems, or components.This demonstration should also verify the potential for enhancement of quality, reliability, and performance.

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References:

1. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-is-different-almost-no-company-is-safe-115830640002. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rhockett/2020/03/16/managing-coronaviruss-economic-fallout-demand-and-supply-side-measures/#53c1cec3c2193. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/coronavirus-caused-major-decrease-in-china-demand-cfo-survey.html4. https://hbr.org/2020/02/how-coronavirus-could-impact-the-global-supply-chain-by-mid-march

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