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5-D Weather Forecasting

Award Information
Agency: Department of Defense
Branch: Air Force
Contract: FA8649-21-P-1083
Agency Tracking Number: FX211-CSO1-0323
Amount: $49,991.00
Phase: Phase I
Program: SBIR
Solicitation Topic Code: AF211-CSO1
Solicitation Number: X21.1
Solicitation Year: 2021
Award Year: 2021
Award Start Date (Proposal Award Date): 2021-04-19
Award End Date (Contract End Date): 2021-07-19
Small Business Information
9009 North May #116
Oklahoma City, OK 73120-0104
United States
DUNS: 117423018
HUBZone Owned: No
Woman Owned: No
Socially and Economically Disadvantaged: No
Principal Investigator
 Joel Martin
 (405) 227-2044
Business Contact
 Allen Gardner
Phone: (858) 775-9136
Research Institution

The emergence of extreme-endurance aerospace platforms, with flight endurance greater than 90 days, places an unprecedented demand on atmospheric forecasting. These platforms are highly sensitive to wind and weather conditions and mission planners are required to operate them within tight requirements. Due to their slow airspeeds these platforms cannot adapt quickly to errors in the weather forecast, making them highly dependent on the accuracy of long-term weather forecasts for both mission utility and safety. Errors in weather forecasts can cause these platforms to be positioned poorly and unable to station keep underneath clouds or thunderstorms. Although it is effectively impossible to accurately predict weather out to 90 days, the possibility exists to create a forecasting system that can provide a spectrum of reasonable weather scenarios that have a high probability of capturing the true weather environment far into the future within a band of uncertainty. The Skydweller team proposes to build AI-driven five-dimensional (5D) weather forecasting tools that model weather across latitude, longitude, altitude, time, and uncertainty. The fifth dimension of uncertainty is a critical innovation for extreme-endurance platforms. This capability will allow mission planners to run flight simulations against all possible weather scenarios far into the future, within a forecasted range of uncertainty, and then adapt the flight plan of the air vehicle to maximize the probability of mission success and flight safety. 

* Information listed above is at the time of submission. *

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