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Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts Using Reforecast Datasets

Award Information
Agency: Department of Defense
Branch: Defense Threat Reduction Agency
Contract: HDTRA1-07-C-0122
Agency Tracking Number: RDI060003360
Amount: $749,905.00
Phase: Phase II
Program: SBIR
Solicitation Topic Code: DTRA06-006
Solicitation Number: 2006.1
Solicitation Year: 2006
Award Year: 2007
Award Start Date (Proposal Award Date): 2007-10-12
Award End Date (Contract End Date): 2009-10-11
Small Business Information
P O Box 3029
Norman, OK 73070
United States
DUNS: 133622717
HUBZone Owned: Yes
Woman Owned: Yes
Socially and Economically Disadvantaged: Yes
Principal Investigator
 Fanyou Kong
 Sr. Research Scientist
 (405) 325-0056
Business Contact
 Vicki Rose
Title: Managing Business Directo
Phone: (405) 325-0056
Research Institution

Fine-scale, well-calibrated probabilistic weather forecasts are increasingly in demand for such weather-critical applications as battlespace management, and accurate prediction of high-value airborne operations. Built upon the Phase I effort we have just completed, the principal objective of this proposed study (Phase II) is to develop a reliable, efficient, and easily deployable reforecast-calibration system prototype based on fine-scale ensemble reforecast datasets and use it to produce well-calibrated, fine-scale probabilistic weather forecast products. This study consists of three major components. The first component is to produce a basic 20-year fine-scale ensemble reforecast dataset over the CONUS domain using the WRF-ARW modeling system. The second component is to further develop and examine various MOS-based statistical models that apply to more variables and multiple classes and to refine the Phase I KNN calibration techniques, using the large reforecast sample base, and to compare the two techniques. The third component is to conduct sensitivity experiments to study data-sparse impact and the trade-offs between ensemble size and reforecast length, in order to assess the feasibility and effectiveness of the deployable reforecast-calibration system.

* Information listed above is at the time of submission. *

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