Modeling and Prediction of Asymmetric Threat Learning Processes

Award Information
Agency:
Department of Defense
Branch
Navy
Amount:
$4,903,472.00
Award Year:
2008
Program:
SBIR
Phase:
Phase II
Contract:
N00014-08-C-0254
Agency Tracking Number:
N061-077-0038
Solicitation Year:
2006
Solicitation Topic Code:
N06-077
Solicitation Number:
2006.1
Small Business Information
COMMONWEALTH COMPUTER RESEARCH, INC.
1422 Sachem Pl., Unit #1, Charlottesville, VA, 22901
Hubzone Owned:
N
Socially and Economically Disadvantaged:
N
Woman Owned:
N
Duns:
000000000
Principal Investigator:
Jill Willson
Ms.
(434) 977-0600
jmwillson@ccri.com
Business Contact:
Mr. Louis Pittard
VP of Operations
(434) 977-0600
louis@ccri.com
Research Institution:
n/a
Abstract
CCRIs Phase I research efforts on Modeling and Prediction of Asymmetric Threat Learning Processes have shown the potential for learning models to improve predictive accuracy. The methodology developed proved to be robust and provides improvements in prediction, even when parameter estimation for the structural equation models was not significant. The Phase I results suggest that the development of a prototype tool based on the methods CCRI developed is necessary to automate information selection and build a database to store large volumes of data, model parameters and results. The proposed tool will also enable formal testing of the model for robustness using alternative datasets and scenarios. Several questions arose from the Phase I work and provide a basis for additional Phase II technical objectives. These include measuring and evaluating the effectiveness of model components and other factors that might influence enemy attacks.

* information listed above is at the time of submission.

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