CONSENSUS THEORY AND EXPERT SYSTEMS

Award Information
Agency:
Department of Defense
Branch
Army
Amount:
$86,000.00
Award Year:
1985
Program:
SBIR
Phase:
Phase II
Contract:
n/a
Agency Tracking Number:
869
Solicitation Year:
n/a
Solicitation Topic Code:
n/a
Solicitation Number:
n/a
Small Business Information
Decision Science Consortium
1895 Preston White Dr #300, Reston, VA, 22091
Hubzone Owned:
N
Socially and Economically Disadvantaged:
N
Woman Owned:
N
Duns:
n/a
Principal Investigator:
Marvin S. Cohen
(703) 620-0660
Business Contact:
() -
Research Institution:
n/a
Abstract
A VARIETY OF ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES HAVE BEEN PROPOSED FOR INFERENCE IN EXPERT SYSTEMS: BAYESIAN PROBABILITIES, BELIEF FUNCTIONS, FUZZY SETS, AND OTHERS. THEY DIFFER IN THE CONCEPTS THEY SEEK TO ADDRESS IN THEIR NORMATIVE JUSTIFICATION, IN EASE OF USE, AND PSYCHOLOGICAL APTNESS FOR THE PURPOSES OF EXPERTS AND EXPERT SYSTEM USERS. COMBINING RESEARCH EFFORTS IN STATISTICAL INFERENCE THEORY, COMPUTER SCIENCE, AND COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY, DSC PROPOSES TO ADDRESS THE PROBLEM OF DESIGNING AND SELECTING INFERENCE FRAMEWORKS FOR EXPERT SYSTEMS. THE PRIMARY OBJECTIVE OF THE INITIAL RESEARCH (PHASE I) IS TO EXPLORE THE FEASIBILITY OF DEVELOPING NEW METHODS FOR INFERENCE IN EXPERT SYSTEMS,WHICH ADDRESS SPECIFIC SHORTCOMINGS IN EXISTING APPROACHES AND COMBINE SOME OF THEIR DISTINCT VIRTUES. THE SECOND OBJECTIVE OF PHASE I RESEARCH IS TO IMPROVE UNDERSTANDING OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF EXPERTS, USERS, AND PROBLEM DOMAINS THAT MAKE CHOICE OF ONE INFERENCE SCHEME MORE APPROPRIATE THAN ANOTHER. FIVE SUBSTANTIVE TASKS HAVE BEEN PROPOSED: (1) A SYSTEMATIC EXAMINATION OF ALTERNATIVE THEORIES OF INFERENCE IN TERMS OF FACTORS RELEVANT TO EXPERT SYSTEM APPLICATIONS; (2) THEORETICAL DEVELOPMENT OF IMPROVED INFERENCE METHODS; (3) SELECTION OF AN ARMY OPERATIONAL TESTBED; (4) COMPUTER IMPLEMENTATION OF A SMALL-SCALE EXPERT SYSTEM FOR EXPERIMENTAL TESTING; AND (5) EXPERIMENTAL COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE INFERENCE SCHEMES.

* information listed above is at the time of submission.

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