ALTHOUGH MUCH RESEARCH HAS BEEN DONE ON DELINEATING WHAT SORTS OF COGNITIVE PROCESSES AND BIASES OPERATE IN MAKING CERTAINTY JUDGMENTS WITHIN VARIOUS DECISION MAKING CONTEXTS,THE IDEA OF TREATING THE TASK OF DECISION MAKING AS AN INDEPENDENT VARIABLE IN

Award Information
Agency:
National Science Foundation
Branch
n/a
Amount:
$40,000.00
Award Year:
1985
Program:
SBIR
Phase:
Phase I
Contract:
n/a
Award Id:
2626
Agency Tracking Number:
2626
Solicitation Year:
n/a
Solicitation Topic Code:
n/a
Solicitation Number:
n/a
Small Business Information
Decision Science Consortium (Currently Decision Science Associates)
7700 Leesburg Pike, Suite 421, Falls Church, VA, 22043
Hubzone Owned:
N
Minority Owned:
N
Woman Owned:
N
Duns:
n/a
Principal Investigator:
JOHN M LEDDO
ANALYST
(703) 790-0510
Business Contact:
() -
Research Institution:
n/a
Abstract
ALTHOUGH MUCH RESEARCH HAS BEEN DONE ON DELINEATING WHAT SORTS OF COGNITIVE PROCESSES AND BIASES OPERATE IN MAKING CERTAINTY JUDGMENTS WITHIN VARIOUS DECISION MAKING CONTEXTS,THE IDEA OF TREATING THE TASK OF DECISION MAKING AS AN INDEPENDENT VARIABLE IN AND OF ITSELF AND EXPLORING WHAT DEMANDS IT PLACES ON THE DECISION MAKER HAS NOT BEEN ADEQUATELY INVESTIGATED. THE PRESENT PROPOSAL VIEWS THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS AS CONSISTING OF THREE POTENTIAL ROLES: PLANNER, CRITIC, AND ENGINEER, AND PROPOSES TO INVESTIGATE WHAT DEMANDS EACH TASK PLACES ON THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS. WE PROPOSE THAT THE ROLE OF PLANNER BIASES PEOPLE TOWARD CAUSAL REASONING AND WILL LEAD TO THE FOLLOWING THREE PHENOMENA: A) PEOPLE WILL BE DISPOSED TO USECAUSAL INFORMATION WHEN AVAILABLE AND THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE THEIR CERTAINTY JUDGEMENTS; B) PEOPLE WILL PREFER SINGLE OPTION PLANS TO MULTIPLE OPTION PLANS LEADING TO THE DESIRED OUTCOME; AND C) PEOPLE WILL PREFER COMPLEX, MORE DETAILED PLANS TO SIMPLER, LESS DETAILED PLANS. IT IS HYPOTHESIZED THAT THESE TENDENCIES WILL BE SPECIFIC TO THE ROLE OF PLANNER MAKING HENCE, PEOPLE IN THE ROLE OF CRITIC OR ENGINEER SHOULD BE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO THESE TENDENCIES. THE PROJECT TEAM CONTRIBUTES: EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE IN THE AREAS OF HUMAN JUDGMENTS AND BIASES (LEDDO, KAHNEMAN, BROWN,TOLCOTT, COHEN), EXPERIENCE IN STATISTICAL MODELLING (LEDDO,KAHNEMAN, BROWN, COHEN), AND EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE IN COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY RESEARCH (LEDDO, KAHNEMAN, TOLCOTT, COHEN).

* information listed above is at the time of submission.

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