Automated, Intelligent Life-Cycle Cost Modeling

As the longevity of weapon systems continue to increase, operations and support (O&S) costs account for a larger percentage of the total system life-cycle cost. Yet O&S costs are often under estimated, especially early in the development cycle when 80% or more of the total ownership cost is “locked-in” by technology/system design decisions. Developers and planners require an approach to estimate the cost impact of designs quickly and with credibility, enabling life-cycle cost to be used as a key element in technology/system design trades for a “best-value” system. This includes identification of key O&S cost drivers, uncertainties, sensitivities and the cost-risks associated with technology maturity and system/technology manufacturability. This capability will help to ensure new military technologies and systems are both effective and affordable. This Phase II research will enhance an existing cost methodology and computer toolset. The existing toolset is the basis for affordability tools used within several DoD acquisition and research organizations. The integration of technology maturity and manufacturability considerations into the cost-estimation methodology will provide a capability acknowledged by the Defense Science Board as an important issue in systems acquisition. The Phase II program will fully develop a prototype computer-analysis tool, validate its functionality, and deliver it.