COMPARISON BASED METHOD FOR STRUCTURING EXPERT JUDGMENT IN S/V ANALYSIS

THE OBJECTIVE OF THIS PROJECT IS TO DEVELOP A METHOD FOR THE PREDICTION OF SURVIVABILITY/VULNERABILITY (S/V) TO NUCLEAR BLAST AND SHOCK OF PROTECTIVE STRUCTURAL FACILITIES. THE PARTICULAR PROBLEM IS THE CHARACTERIZATION OF EXPERT JUDGMENT AND TECHNICAL INTUITION AS ELEMENTS IN THE ASSESSMENT PROCESS. THE APPROACH WILL BE TO APPLY COMPARISON-BASED PREDICTION (CBP) METHODS, WHICH HAVE BEEN DEMONSTRATED TO STRUCTURE EXPERT JUDGMENT SO AS TO GENERATE PREDICTIONS UNDER CONDITIONS OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR DEFENSE SYSTEM RELIABILITY AND EFFECTIVENESS, TO S/V ASSESSMENT. THE RESEARCH WILL CONSIST OF A FEASIBILITY STUDY AND TRIAL APPLICATION OF THE METHOD TO A PROBLEM SELECTED WITH AFWL, PREFERABLY ONE THAT IS ALSO THE SUBJECT OF EXPERIMENT. THE CBP METHODOLOGY PROVIDES A STRUCTURE FOR THE EXPERT JUDGMENT BY USING ANALOGOUS CASES AS A BASIS FOR THE ESTIMATION. EXPERTS WILL PRODUCE ASSESSMENTS BOTH BY THEIR USUAL METHODS AND BY CBP PROCEDURES, AND THE TWO WILL BE COMPARED; CBP RESULTS WILL ALSO BE COMPARED WITH THE RESULTS OF ANY RESEARCH FINDINGS, IF SUCH A PROBLEM WAS CHOSEN. THE STRATEGY WILL PROVIDE AN EXPLICIT AUDIT TRAIL OF HOW THE PREDICTIONS ARE DERIVED. THE PREDICTION DATA WILL BE EXAMINED TO DETERMINE THE VALUE OF CBP AS A METHOD TO AID IN S/V ASSESSMENT.