Data Driven Prognostics

Award Information
Agency: Department of Defense
Branch: Missile Defense Agency
Contract: HQ00603C0093
Agency Tracking Number: 031-1314
Amount: $69,982.00
Phase: Phase I
Program: SBIR
Awards Year: 2003
Solicitation Year: N/A
Solicitation Topic Code: N/A
Solicitation Number: N/A
Small Business Information
225 Runnymede Parkway, New Providence, NJ, 07974
HUBZone Owned: N
Woman Owned: N
Socially and Economically Disadvantaged: N
Principal Investigator
 Qi (Peter) Li
 Chief Scientist
 (908) 508-0239
Business Contact
 Qi (Peter) Li
Title: Chief Scientist
Phone: (908) 508-0239
Research Institution
This proposal is to describe a unique and promising solution for data-driven prognostics called the hidden-Markov-model (HMM) based prognostic (HBP), and to study the feasibility of using the above solution to build products for military and commercialmarkets. Data-driven prognostics have been studied for many years; however, the performances of existing systems do not meet the requirements of military and commercial applications because of inherent limitations in the approaches. We note that theprognostic is a dynamic-pattern recognition problem, but most existing approaches only use techniques and models developed years ago for steady-pattern recognition, which is not adequate in terms of accuracy and lacks true and full replication of operatingmachines. From our current and previous research, we know that speech signals have characteristics similar to the signals collected from operating machines or equipment. The HMM techniques developed in automatic speech recognition (ASR) are indeed fordynamic-pattern recognition and have provided a solution for ASR successfully; therefore, the proposed HMM approach has the potential to solve the problem and to develop products for data-driven prognostics for commercial and defense applications. We willdevelop prognostic products including software and hardware through this research and development. The products will be introduced to DoD first, and then provided to commercial aircraft and engine companies in the private sector market, such as Boeing, GE,and other system manufacturers. The size of the potential market is quite large since virtually every aircraft engine or weapon system needs a prognostic system to predict the failure, fault, or errors, and to ensure the safety of complex aircraft andweapon systems. We expect to sell significant number systems during the first year after finishing Phase II, and also expect a significant increase per year following the first year since we will have new products, such as chips for prognostics, at thattime.

* information listed above is at the time of submission.

Agency Micro-sites

SBA logo
Department of Agriculture logo
Department of Commerce logo
Department of Defense logo
Department of Education logo
Department of Energy logo
Department of Health and Human Services logo
Department of Homeland Security logo
Department of Transportation logo
Environmental Protection Agency logo
National Aeronautics and Space Administration logo
National Science Foundation logo
US Flag An Official Website of the United States Government