PRobabilistic Integrated Mission Effectiveness and Readiness Analysis (PRIMERA)

Using model-based systems engineering (MBSE) environments and languages such as SysML, program analysts can model the function of vessels’ subsystems and their interaction. However, standard MBSE environments and languages do not enable analysts to express uncertainty about the future state of the design process and stochastic effects of environmental variables (such as degradation due to combat). They also do not support modeling the influence of part failure and maintenance/sustainment schedules on vessel- and strike-group-level probability of successful mission. To address these concerns, Charles River Analytics is proposing a tool for PRobabilistic Integrated Mission Effectiveness and Readiness Analysis (PRIMERA). PRIMERA integrates uncertainty-enhanced SysML models with maintenance and sustainment data sources and models, enabling analysis under uncertainty about the effects of subsystem reliability and maintainability on KPPs such as detect-to-engage kill chain and probability of successful mission.