IT HAS BEEN SUGGESTED THAT MOST NUCLEAR WARS IMAGINED WOULD CAUSE DECREASED SOLAR ENERGY AT THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF THE WORLD AND THAT THE SMOKE AND DUST CAUSING THE SUNLIGHT ATTENUATION WOULD PERSIST FOR MONTHS TO YEARS.

Award Information
Agency: Department of Defense
Branch: Defense Threat Reduction Agency
Contract: N/A
Agency Tracking Number: 794
Amount: $60,000.00
Phase: Phase I
Program: SBIR
Awards Year: 1984
Solitcitation Year: N/A
Solitcitation Topic Code: N/A
Solitcitation Number: N/A
Small Business Information
Pacific-sierra Research Corp
12340 Santa Monica Boulevard, Los Angeles, CA, 90025
Duns: N/A
Hubzone Owned: N
Woman Owned: N
Socially and Economically Disadvantaged: N
Principal Investigator
 HAROLD L. BRODE
 (213) 820-2200
Business Contact
Phone: () -
Research Institution
N/A
Abstract
IT HAS BEEN SUGGESTED THAT MOST NUCLEAR WARS IMAGINED WOULD CAUSE DECREASED SOLAR ENERGY AT THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF THE WORLD AND THAT THE SMOKE AND DUST CAUSING THE SUNLIGHT ATTENUATION WOULD PERSIST FOR MONTHS TO YEARS. THE ASSUMPTIONS INVOKED IN REACHING SUCH ESTIMATED EFFECTS ARE SUBJECT TO GREAT UNCERTAINTY AND MERIT MORE ATTENTION. WE PROPOSE TO PROVIDE INDEPENDENT BEST ESTIMATES OF MEAN VALUES AND A MEASURE OF THE UNCERTAINTY/VARIABILITY OF EACH CONTRIBUTING FACTOR, TOGETHER WITH SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION. AREAS AT RISK, BOTH URBAN/ SUBURBAN AND WILDLAND, FUEL LOADING, BURN RATES AND WEIGHTS, SMOKE VOLUME (MASS) GENERATED, SOOT AND ASH PARTICLE SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS, ALTITUDES ACHIEVED, AND SOME MEASURES OF THE RATES OF DISPERSION, CONVERSION, AND SETTLEMENT. THE POSSIBLE VARIANCE IS LARGE, SINCE MOST OF THESE UNCERTAIN FACTORS ENTER AN OPTICAL THICKNESS MEASURE IN THE EXPONENT OF AN EXPONENTIAL FACTOR.

* information listed above is at the time of submission.

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