A Statistical Approach to Advanced Space Technology Cost Estimation: Modeling the Stochastic Component of the Projected Cost

Award Information
Agency: Department of Defense
Branch: Air Force
Contract: FA9453-04-M-0134
Agency Tracking Number: F041-039-0325
Amount: $99,975.00
Phase: Phase I
Program: SBIR
Awards Year: 2004
Solicitation Year: 2004
Solicitation Topic Code: AF04-039
Solicitation Number: 2004.1
Small Business Information
12030 Sunrise Valley Dr, Suite 400, Reston Plaza I, Reston, VA, 20191
DUNS: 072651391
HUBZone Owned: N
Woman Owned: N
Socially and Economically Disadvantaged: N
Principal Investigator
 Dan Cohen
 Program Manager
 (505) 242-7840
Business Contact
 Paul Banas
Title: Vice President
Phone: (985) 639-3529
Email: pbanas@psislidell.com
Research Institution
The advancement of space systems and technology to a large extent depends on our ability to cost-effectively progress from early technology conceptualization to development, maturation and implementation. While advanced space technology development is almost always a risky endeavor, it is critical to be able to asses the risks, costs, and benefits associated with these efforts. History has shown that it is often very difficult to accurately estimate the cost of such development activities. The ability to accurately estimate the cost of space technology programs, as a function of Technology Readiness Level (TRL), is key to effective cost and risk management of such activities. The underlying assumption for the proposed effort is that the overall cost of a complex project has a strong stochastic component, which originates from many unaccountable factors, such as human productivity, synergistic and nonlinear effects, external interference, and many others effects. Therefore we propose to look at the space technology development cost estimation problem from the statistical point of view, i.e. to treat the evolution of the project cost as a process with a stochastic component.

* Information listed above is at the time of submission. *

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