M&S Uncertainty Quantification Using an Ant Swarm Model

Award Information
Agency:
Department of Defense
Branch
Missile Defense Agency
Amount:
$98,508.00
Award Year:
2013
Program:
STTR
Phase:
Phase I
Contract:
HQ0147-13-C-7410
Agency Tracking Number:
B12B-007-0025
Solicitation Year:
2012
Solicitation Topic Code:
MDA12-T007
Solicitation Number:
2012.B
Small Business Information
Prime Solutions Group, Incorporated
1300 S. Litchfield Road, Box 1, Suite A1020, Goodyear, AZ, -
Hubzone Owned:
N
Socially and Economically Disadvantaged:
N
Woman Owned:
N
Duns:
791391183
Principal Investigator:
Joseph Marvin
Program Manager
(623) 853-0829
joemarvin@psg-inc.net
Business Contact:
Sharon Marvin
Director of Contracts
(623) 853-0829
sharonmarvin@psg-inc.net
Research Institution:
Frontline Healthcare Safety Foundat
J. R Cohen
Three Dunwoody Park, Ste 103
Atlanta, GA, 30338-
(678) 781-5241
Domestic nonprofit research organization
Abstract
Appropriate models for missile defense systems (MDS) need to include both epistemic and aleatoric variables. This prevents the calculation of conventional confidence intervals and significance levels for the models, since these require that a statistical probability distribution be assumed wherever one is not actually known. Our proposed uncertainty quantification system will provide BMD with an overall measure of uncertainty that incorporates both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty using an ant swarm model borrowed from nature. In addition, it provides a graphical presentation of overall uncertainty. The uncertainty quantification system will also provide indicators of combinations of variables which cause the M & S system under study to produce exceptionally high, exceptionally low, or exceptionally rapidly changing output.

* information listed above is at the time of submission.

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