M&S Uncertainty Quantification Using an Ant Swarm Model

Award Information
Agency: Department of Defense
Branch: Missile Defense Agency
Contract: HQ0147-13-C-7410
Agency Tracking Number: B12B-007-0025
Amount: $98,508.00
Phase: Phase I
Program: STTR
Awards Year: 2013
Solicitation Year: 2012
Solicitation Topic Code: MDA12-T007
Solicitation Number: 2012.B
Small Business Information
1300 S. Litchfield Road, Box 1, Suite A1020, Goodyear, AZ, -
DUNS: 791391183
HUBZone Owned: N
Woman Owned: N
Socially and Economically Disadvantaged: N
Principal Investigator
 Joseph Marvin
 Program Manager
 (623) 853-0829
 joemarvin@psg-inc.net
Business Contact
 Sharon Marvin
Title: Director of Contracts
Phone: (623) 853-0829
Email: sharonmarvin@psg-inc.net
Research Institution
 Frontline Healthcare Safety Foundat
 J. R Cohen
 Three Dunwoody Park, Ste 103
Atlanta, GA, 30338-
 (678) 781-5241
 Domestic nonprofit research organization
Abstract
Appropriate models for missile defense systems (MDS) need to include both epistemic and aleatoric variables. This prevents the calculation of conventional confidence intervals and significance levels for the models, since these require that a statistical probability distribution be assumed wherever one is not actually known. Our proposed uncertainty quantification system will provide BMD with an overall measure of uncertainty that incorporates both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty using an ant swarm model borrowed from nature. In addition, it provides a graphical presentation of overall uncertainty. The uncertainty quantification system will also provide indicators of combinations of variables which cause the M & S system under study to produce exceptionally high, exceptionally low, or exceptionally rapidly changing output.

* Information listed above is at the time of submission. *

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