M&S Uncertainty Quantification

Award Information
Agency: Department of Defense
Branch: Missile Defense Agency
Contract: HQ0147-13-C-7406
Agency Tracking Number: B12B-007-0037
Amount: $99,962.00
Phase: Phase I
Program: STTR
Awards Year: 2013
Solitcitation Year: 2012
Solitcitation Topic Code: MDA12-T007
Solitcitation Number: 2012.B
Small Business Information
M4 Engineering, Inc.
4020 Long Beach Blvd, Long Beach, CA, -
Duns: 133626544
Hubzone Owned: N
Woman Owned: Y
Socially and Economically Disadvantaged: N
Principal Investigator
 Tyler Winter
 Senior Engineer
 (562) 981-7797
 twinter@m4-engineering.com
Business Contact
 Kevin Roughen
Title: Vice President of Engineering
Phone: (562) 981-7797
Email: kroughen@m4-engineering.com
Research Institution
 Missouri S&T
 Serhat Hosder
 1870 Miner Circle
290B Toomey Hall
Rolla, MO, 65409-0500
 (573) 341-7239
 Nonprofit college or university
Abstract
M4 Engineering, Inc. and Missouri S & T propose to investigate and refine uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for Ballistic Missile Defense Systems (BMDS) Modeling and Simulation (M & S) with the emphasis on demonstrating the feasibility of non-intrusive stochastic expansions based on polynomial chaos, which will address the accuracy and computational efficiency issues associated with UQ in BMDS simulations. The functional representation and computational efficiency of the stochastic expansion methods will enable the use of uncertainty quantification for both real-time and as-fast-as-possible BMDS M & S. Furthermore, methods based on polynomial chaos will be non-intrusive in the sense that no modification to the existing deterministic physical modeling codes will be required. The UQ approach will include the modeling and propagation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in BMDS M & S with the utilization of Second-Order Probability Theory. The computational efficiency and accuracy of stochastic expansions will be tested on model problems relevant to BMDS M & S and will be compared to other UQ methodologies based on surrogate modeling. The results of these studies will determine the UQ method(s) suitable for BMDS M & S, which will be integrated to general UQ framework software to be developed in a possible Phase II effort.

* information listed above is at the time of submission.

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