M&S Uncertainty Quantification

Award Information
Agency:
Department of Defense
Branch
Missile Defense Agency
Amount:
$99,962.00
Award Year:
2013
Program:
STTR
Phase:
Phase I
Contract:
HQ0147-13-C-7406
Award Id:
n/a
Agency Tracking Number:
B12B-007-0037
Solicitation Year:
2012
Solicitation Topic Code:
MDA12-T007
Solicitation Number:
2012.B
Small Business Information
4020 Long Beach Blvd, Long Beach, CA, -
Hubzone Owned:
N
Minority Owned:
N
Woman Owned:
Y
Duns:
133626544
Principal Investigator:
TylerWinter
Senior Engineer
(562) 981-7797
twinter@m4-engineering.com
Business Contact:
KevinRoughen
Vice President of Engineering
(562) 981-7797
kroughen@m4-engineering.com
Research Institute:
Missouri S&T
Serhat Hosder
1870 Miner Circle
290B Toomey Hall
Rolla, MO, 65409-0500
(573) 341-7239

Abstract
M4 Engineering, Inc. and Missouri S & T propose to investigate and refine uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for Ballistic Missile Defense Systems (BMDS) Modeling and Simulation (M & S) with the emphasis on demonstrating the feasibility of non-intrusive stochastic expansions based on polynomial chaos, which will address the accuracy and computational efficiency issues associated with UQ in BMDS simulations. The functional representation and computational efficiency of the stochastic expansion methods will enable the use of uncertainty quantification for both real-time and as-fast-as-possible BMDS M & S. Furthermore, methods based on polynomial chaos will be non-intrusive in the sense that no modification to the existing deterministic physical modeling codes will be required. The UQ approach will include the modeling and propagation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in BMDS M & S with the utilization of Second-Order Probability Theory. The computational efficiency and accuracy of stochastic expansions will be tested on model problems relevant to BMDS M & S and will be compared to other UQ methodologies based on surrogate modeling. The results of these studies will determine the UQ method(s) suitable for BMDS M & S, which will be integrated to general UQ framework software to be developed in a possible Phase II effort.

* information listed above is at the time of submission.

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