Delivering a Solar Flare Forecast Model that Improves Flare Forecast (Timing and Magnitude) Accuracy by 25%

Award Information
Agency:
Department of Commerce
Amount:
$94,994.00
Program:
SBIR
Contract:
WC-133R-13-CN-0079
Solitcitation Year:
2013
Solicitation Number:
NOAA-2013-1
Branch:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Award Year:
2013
Phase:
Phase I
Agency Tracking Number:
13-102
Solicitation Topic Code:
9.4.3W
Small Business Information
NorthWest Research Associates, Inc. (NWRA)
CoRA Office, 3380 Mitchell Lane, Boulder, CO, 80301-2245
Hubzone Owned:
Y
Woman Owned:
N
Socially and Economically Disadvantaged:
N
Duns:
151471349
Principal Investigator
 KD Leka
 Senior Research Scientist
 (303) 415-9701
 leka@nwra.com
Business Contact
Research Institution
N/A
Abstract
Many activities and technological systems prevalent in today’s society – air traffic control and air travel, the power grids, communications, deep-water drilling operations, human spaceflight – are vulnerable to the effects of sudden flares from our Sun. Because the propagation speed for flare emission is the speed of light, it is necessary to forecast these events in order to mitigate their effects. The objectives of this project are 1) to validate the performance of an automated flare forecasting technique that parameterizes observations of solar magnetic fields and subsurface flows determined from helioseismology, then uses Discriminant Analysis to make a prediction, and 2) to assess the feasibility of this technique as an operational model. The quantitative use of magnetic field observations, subsurface flows and Discriminant Analysis are all innovations not presently used by the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center.

* information listed above is at the time of submission.

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