Decision Aid to Threat Identification and Intent Modeling

ABSTRACT: Applied Defense Solutions (ADS) has embarked upon a new approach to data correlation and aggregation using a space object taxonomy that provides a set of unique signatures for automatically recognizing and classifying a space object. The goal of this Space Signatures effort is to find automated techniques for threat identification and intent modeling that will enable analysts to take signature data from different phenomenology sensors, combine them, and discern more intelligence than can be determined from the individual sensors alone. The Phase 1 Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) project focuses on photometric light curve data as the initial data source and utilizes the GOTS Ananke software suite to ingest evidence from a Multiple Model Adaptive Estimator (MMAE). ADS has shown previously that its Hierarchical Reasoning Tool (HRT), which is a component of Ananke, can rapidly, decisively, and accurately select the correct object identification hypothesis based upon the priors and the observational evidence supplied by the MMAE. This Phase 1 effort will leverage the HRT and lead to a method to monitor satellite observables using optical and other data sources to predict and understand future activities of operational satellites in orbit. BENEFIT: Hierarchical reasoning capabilities provide a structured and mathematically rigorous methodology to correlate and aggregate sparse data from disparate sensors. The completed software tools could be used by both government and commercial entities that wish to not only provide indications of and attribution for anomalous events but also predict the likelihood of future intention and warn of possible threats.