A Stochastic Neural Network Model for Missile Reliability Prognostics

Award Information
Agency:
Department of Defense
Branch
Army
Amount:
$99,991.00
Award Year:
2002
Program:
SBIR
Phase:
Phase I
Contract:
DAAH01-02-C-R115
Agency Tracking Number:
A012-1830
Solicitation Year:
n/a
Solicitation Topic Code:
n/a
Solicitation Number:
n/a
Small Business Information
Acta, Inc.
2790 Skypark Drive, Suite 310, Torrance, CA, 90505
Hubzone Owned:
N
Socially and Economically Disadvantaged:
N
Woman Owned:
N
Duns:
131277725
Principal Investigator:
Timothy Hasselman
Director, Eng. Mechanics
(310) 530-1008
hasselman@actainc.com
Business Contact:
James Hudson
Vice President
(310) 530-1008
hudson@actainc.com
Research Institution:
n/a
Abstract
"The proposed project will demonstrate the feasibility of developing a Stochastic Neural Network for Missile Reliability Prognostics. A neural network model will be developed to predict missile reliability based on the environmental history of particularmissiles. Prediction training will be employed to predict missile reliability at future times, based only on training data available at the current time. Principal components metrics will be used to quantify generic modeling uncertainty based on pastexperience, for purposes of evaluating the predictive accuracy of future reliability estimates. The innovation proposed here will combine the benefits of prediction training and generic uncertainty modeling to quantify the accuracy of reliabilitypredictions based on a statistical comparison of earlier predictions with subsequent observations. Both will be correlated with measurements of the ambient environment recorded by a data logger. Statistical analyses of the environmental data will beperformed to coincide with the update of reliability information, reducing the environmental data to time dependent statistical parameters. In addition to providing the Army with a tool for missile reliability prognostics, an immediate spin-off might verywell be the application to Sandia's maintenance of the Nation's nuclear weapons stockpile, where radiation is an important environmental factor. Other potential applications involve various types o

* information listed above is at the time of submission.

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