Advanced Cost Model for Space Concepts Development

Award Information
Agency: Department of Defense
Branch: Air Force
Contract: FA9453-04-M-0092
Agency Tracking Number: F041-017-1807
Amount: $99,998.00
Phase: Phase I
Program: SBIR
Awards Year: 2004
Solicitation Year: 2004
Solicitation Topic Code: AF04-017
Solicitation Number: 2004.1
Small Business Information
2015 Park Avenue, Suite 8, Redlands, CA, 92373
DUNS: 059385711
HUBZone Owned: N
Woman Owned: N
Socially and Economically Disadvantaged: N
Principal Investigator
 Deganit Armon
 Principal Investigator
 (909) 307-6218
Business Contact
 Charles Kondrack
Title: Vice President, GM
Phone: (909) 307-6218
Research Institution
The Advatech Pacific, Inc. Team (API Team) will analyze historical programmatic data for selected space-system development programs that are representative of current programs of interest. These programs will be analyzed with respect to specific technologies that have gone through a technology maturity cycle. This analysis will define the Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) at each point in the development cycle. This information will then be mapped to a set of normalized Technology Cost, Risk & Maturity curves that will illustrate the relationship between budgeted cost (i.e., funding available to the project managers) and the level of risk and/or probability of success for each given technology at each TRL for space programs. Differences in how the various historical space programs have been managed will lead to estimating error distributions for the technologies under study. Statistically summing all system risks, including those associated with technology development, will then result in a total cost/risk distribution for each space program whose cost is to be estimated. The cost model, based on this analysis, can then be used to predict the required investment needed to execute a space program that is pushing the technical state of the art. The total cost/risk distribution allows the decision maker to associate a degree of confidence in program executability with any proposed program budget. Simultaneously, the API Team will develop the plan for implementing this programmatic Life Cycle Cost/risk (LCC/risk) model strategy into a stochastic analysis code that will automate the computations required to translate the engineering analysis into a cost estimate. Further, this code would make use of the logic and capabilities of existing commercial and Government cost models where they are found appropriate. Most importantly, the plan will address how the stochastic analysis code (and the appropriate commercial cost models) will become an element of the technical design and analysis framework, called the Integrated Space Engineering Tool (ISET), currently being developed and used by AFRL/VSE at Kirtland AFB, NM. This will give ISET the capability to be used to direct technology investment during a program's conceptual phase.

* information listed above is at the time of submission.

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