Characterization of mesoscale weather prediction errors for dispersion modeling

Award Information
Agency: Department of Defense
Branch: Defense Threat Reduction Agency
Contract: HDTRA1-05-P-0031
Agency Tracking Number: T041-003-0011
Amount: $99,629.00
Phase: Phase I
Program: SBIR
Awards Year: 2005
Solicitation Year: 2004
Solicitation Topic Code: DTRA04-003
Solicitation Number: 2004.1
Small Business Information
ATMOSPHERIC & ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, IN
131 Hartwell Avenue, Lexington, MA, 02421
DUNS: 091493569
HUBZone Owned: N
Woman Owned: N
Socially and Economically Disadvantaged: N
Principal Investigator
 Ross Hoffman
 Senior Staff Scientist
 (781) 761-2288
 rhoffman@aer.com
Business Contact
 Cecilia Sze
Title: President and CEO
Phone: (781) 761-2288
Email: csze@aer.com
Research Institution
N/A
Abstract
DTRA uses high-resolution mesoscale forecasts to drive HPAC, the DTRA dispersion modeling tool that generates critical forecasts of dosage resulting from releases of chemical, biological, or radiological agents. HPAC is designed to provide probablistic information based on estimates of the uncertainty of the input forecast fields of the meteorological variables (wind, temperature, etc.). We will develop and implement more accurate, reliable, and efficient means of specifying the forecast uncertainty. For speed and efficiency, which is especially needed in real-time applications of HPAC, we will use a combination of statistical methods and the feature calibration and alignment (FCA) technique to provide 5d (x,y,z,t,variable) estimates of the uncertainty of the input weather forecasts. In the future this information may be provided by using ensembles of forecasts. Our implementation of FCA uses a variational algorithm to partition errors into phase errors, bias (or amplification) errors, and residual small scale errors. We will derive error statistics for mesoscale forecasts in terms of the components of FCA, and use these statistics to define the variability parameters used as input to HPAC.

* information listed above is at the time of submission.

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