TECHNIQUES FOR OPTION GENERATION IN DECISION MAKING

Award Information
Agency:
Department of Defense
Branch
Army
Amount:
$52,133.00
Award Year:
1989
Program:
SBIR
Phase:
Phase I
Contract:
n/a
Agency Tracking Number:
9417
Solicitation Year:
n/a
Solicitation Topic Code:
n/a
Solicitation Number:
n/a
Small Business Information
Alphatech Inc
111 Middlesex Tnpk, Burlington, MA, 01803
Hubzone Owned:
N
Socially and Economically Disadvantaged:
N
Woman Owned:
N
Duns:
n/a
Principal Investigator:
Dr Jean Macmillan
(617) 273-3388
Business Contact:
() -
Research Institution:
n/a
Abstract
THE PROPOSED PHASE I RESEARCH WILL BUILD ON ALPHATECH'S THEORETICAL WORK ON THE GENERATION OF CRITICAL OPTIONS IN TACTICAL PLANNING AND ALPHATECH'S PRACTICAL EXPERIENCE OBSERVING PLANNING DEFICIENCIES IN FIELD EXERCISES. BOTH NORMATIVE THEORY AND DESCRIPTIONS OF ACTUAL PLANNING BEHAVIOR WILL BE USED TO IDENTIFY AREAS WHERE TACTICAL PLANNERS NEED DECISION SUPPORT IN ORDER TO GENERATE CRITICAL OPTIONS. FOUR CANDIDATE APPROACHES FOR DECISION AIDING ARE IDENTIFIED: 1) CONVEYING A MORE REALISTIC SENSE OF SITUATION UNCERTAINTY, INCLUDING MOST LIKELY AND WORST CASES; 2) CALCULATING MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM GAINS AND LOSSES; 3) CONVEYING A REALISTIC SENSE OF THE SPACE OF POSSIBLE OPTIONS; AND 4) FORCING CONSIDERATION OF FUTURE INFORMATION AVAILABILITY. ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES WILL BE EVALUATED USING A PROTOTYPICAL TACTICAL PLANNING TEST PROBLEM. THE TWO MOST PROMISING APPROACHE WILL BE TESTED IN AN EXPERIMENT USING A DECISION AID "MOCK UP" ON A MACINTOSH MICROCOMPUTER TO CONVEY TO SUBJECTS THE INFORMATION THAT WOULD BE GENERATED BY A DECISION AID. FINAL SELECTION OF THE MOST PROMISING OPTION GENERATION AIDING APPROACH WILL BE BASED ON EVALUATION OF THE EXPERIMENT.

* information listed above is at the time of submission.

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