ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING

Award Information
Agency:
National Science Foundation
Branch
n/a
Amount:
$34,000.00
Award Year:
1983
Program:
SBIR
Phase:
Phase I
Contract:
n/a
Agency Tracking Number:
683
Solicitation Year:
n/a
Solicitation Topic Code:
n/a
Solicitation Number:
n/a
Small Business Information
Applied Econometrics Inc.
1330 Camino Del Mar, Del Mar, CA, 92014
Hubzone Owned:
N
Minority Owned:
N
Woman Owned:
N
Duns:
n/a
Principal Investigator:
DR. MICHAEL PARTI
PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR
() -
Business Contact:
() -
Research Institution:
n/a
Abstract
THE PURPOSE OF THE PROPOSED RESEARCH IS TO EXPLORE THE FEASIBILITY OF AN ECONOMIC AND STATISTICAL APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM OF FORECASTING THE CONDITIONAL MEANS OF VARIABLES USED TO PREDICT ENERGY DEMAND. REFINEMENTS IN THEMODELING AND FORECASTING OF ENERGY DEMAND WILL RESULT IN BETTER FORECASTS WHICH CAN BE USED BY UTILITY COMPANIES AND GOVERNMENT AGENCIES TO MORE EFFECTIVELY PLAN FOR THE FUTURE.THE PROPOSED TECHNIQUE RECOGNIZES THE NECESSITY OF USING CONDITIONAL MEANS (BASED ON A SUBSET OF CUSTOMERS) OF RELEVANT VARIABLES AND IT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT CHANGING DISTRIBUTIONS OF THESE VARIABLES. THE FIRST STEP IN THE APPROACH IS TO ECONOMETRICALLY ESTIMATE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS OF APPLIANCE OWNERSHIP, CONDITIONAL ON CERTAINEXPLANATORY ECONOMIC OR DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES SUCH AS INCOME. STATISTICAL RELATIONSHIPS ARE THEN USED TO DERIVE THE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF THE EXPLANATORY VARIABLES, GIVEN OWNERSHIP OF AN APPLIANCE SUCH AS AIR-CONDITIONING OR POOL-HEATING. THE CONDITIONAL MEANS OF THE EXPLANATORY VARIABLES CAN THEN BE CALCULATED ON THE BASIS OF THIS CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION. PHASE I OF THE RESEARCH WILL FURTHER DEVELOP THE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK FOR ESTIMATING CONDITIONAL MEANS AND WILL APPLY THE TECHNIQUE TO ENERGY USAGE DATA FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GAS COMPANY.

* information listed above is at the time of submission.

Agency Micro-sites


SBA logo

Department of Agriculture logo

Department of Commerce logo

Department of Defense logo

Department of Education logo

Department of Energy logo

Department of Health and Human Services logo

Department of Homeland Security logo

Department of Transportation logo

Enviromental Protection Agency logo

National Aeronautics and Space Administration logo

National Science Foundation logo
US Flag An Official Website of the United States Government