Infusiun: A Decision Support System for Intelligence Fusion and Uncertainty Analysis

Award Information
Agency:
Department of Defense
Branch
Office of the Secretary of Defense
Amount:
$100,000.00
Award Year:
2003
Program:
SBIR
Phase:
Phase I
Contract:
N00014-04-M-0055
Award Id:
66846
Agency Tracking Number:
O032-4092
Solicitation Year:
n/a
Solicitation Topic Code:
n/a
Solicitation Number:
n/a
Small Business Information
12 Gill Street, Suite 1400, Woburn, MA, 01801
Hubzone Owned:
N
Minority Owned:
N
Woman Owned:
N
Duns:
967259946
Principal Investigator:
KariChopra
Quantitative Analyst
(215) 763-1284
kchopra@aptima.com
Business Contact:
MargaretClancy
Chief Financial Officer
(781) 496-2415
clancy@aptima.com
Research Institute:
n/a
Abstract
We propose to develop the Infusiun decision support tool to provide quantitative support to counter-terrorism analysts performing Level 3 information fusion (Threat Assessment) from open-source and human intelligence. The focus of our effort is onproviding intelligence analysts with methods to manage uncertainty of information and generate quantitative measures of the validity of their assessments. We represent each intelligence source as providing evidence from which the analyst will, incombination with evidence drawn from other sources, seek to draw conclusions about the status and intent of a terrorist organization. Our method will provide the analyst with a multi-dimensional measure of the confidence level of these conclusions based onthe following three properties:¿ Robustness: the extent to which the conclusions are based on multiple independent sources of information;¿ Reliability: the extent to which the conclusions are based on intelligence determined to be accurate and reliable;¿ Strength: the extent to which the conclusions are supported by the evidence reported in the intelligence sources.We propose an innovative approach that draws upon techniques from social network theory, reliability theory, fuzzy logic, and belief theory to integrate empirical measures of validity with the judgment and expertise of the analyst.

* information listed above is at the time of submission.

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