Infusiun: A Decision Support System for Intelligence Fusion and Uncertainty Analysis

Award Information
Agency:
Department of Defense
Branch:
Navy
Amount:
$100,000.00
Award Year:
2003
Program:
SBIR
Phase:
Phase I
Contract:
N00014-04-M-0055
Agency Tracking Number:
O032-4092
Solicitation Year:
N/A
Solicitation Topic Code:
N/A
Solicitation Number:
N/A
Small Business Information
APTIMA, INC.
12 Gill Street, Suite 1400, Woburn, MA, 01801
Hubzone Owned:
N
Socially and Economically Disadvantaged:
N
Woman Owned:
N
Duns:
967259946
Principal Investigator
 Kari Chopra
 Quantitative Analyst
 (215) 763-1284
 kchopra@aptima.com
Business Contact
 Margaret Clancy
Title: Chief Financial Officer
Phone: (781) 496-2415
Email: clancy@aptima.com
Research Institution
N/A
Abstract
We propose to develop the Infusiun decision support tool to provide quantitative support to counter-terrorism analysts performing Level 3 information fusion (Threat Assessment) from open-source and human intelligence. The focus of our effort is onproviding intelligence analysts with methods to manage uncertainty of information and generate quantitative measures of the validity of their assessments. We represent each intelligence source as providing evidence from which the analyst will, incombination with evidence drawn from other sources, seek to draw conclusions about the status and intent of a terrorist organization. Our method will provide the analyst with a multi-dimensional measure of the confidence level of these conclusions based onthe following three properties:¿ Robustness: the extent to which the conclusions are based on multiple independent sources of information;¿ Reliability: the extent to which the conclusions are based on intelligence determined to be accurate and reliable;¿ Strength: the extent to which the conclusions are supported by the evidence reported in the intelligence sources.We propose an innovative approach that draws upon techniques from social network theory, reliability theory, fuzzy logic, and belief theory to integrate empirical measures of validity with the judgment and expertise of the analyst.

* information listed above is at the time of submission.

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